As I was reviewing an old business plan for Wandoujia, I stumbled across our old projections for Android growth. In Nov. 2010, we projected Android to have about 140 million users worldwide, with 20 million in China, by the end of 2012. Oh my, how very very wrong we were.


Here are the actual numbers for 2012: 650 million worldwide, 224 million in China. Moreover, the worldwide figure is Google’s official count of Android activations, which excludes about 41% of Android devices sold in China. If you add that in, there were about 750 million Android devices worldwide by the end of 2012.

Luck is important for any startup. You have a vision of the future, and you put yourself in position to ride that wave. For Wandoujia, it’s come as a tsunami. When I showed Junyu Wang, our co-founder at Wandoujia, he said, “Android’s actual growth is far beyond our wildest expectations.”

It’s said that technology revolutions arrive slower than expected, but are then adopted faster than expected. That’s certainly the case here.


Disclosure: If it wasn’t already clear above (!), I work at Wandoujia, an Android app store and search engine based in Beijing.